Football Cash Generator (Back on 0-0, lay on The Draw) MarketFeeder Pro - Bot BetFair Scommesse - attivato automatizzato delle scommesse software

See more:

For version 6.0 or higher

At the start of a football match place a back bet on the selection named "0 - 0" in a Correct Score market.

At the same time use 95% of the expected profit from this "0 - 0" bet to place a lay bet on "The Draw" in a Match Odds market of the same game. I.e. back £10 at 12 on "0 - 0", that makes £110 expected profit. Then lay on "The Draw" at 3.5: 110*0.95 / (3.5 - 1) = £41.8.

If a goal is scored, then green up "The Draw".

Right-click here to download the trigger file.

When talking about this strategy we need to think of all possible outcomes. We simulated them in MF Pro 6.0, in Test Mode, to see what might happen with profits and losses if a game finished with different results.

1. One of the teams scored and the game did not end with The Draw, but the green-up trigger did not place a bet.

This means the "0 - 0" back bet lost and the lay bet placed on "The Draw" won.

In this case the loss from the back bet is usually covered by the profit from the lay bet. In the screenshot above you can see that in the end the profit is 9.5 - 2 - 0.47 = 7.03.

This is true unless the price of "The Draw" is higher than back_price*0.95, where "back_price" is the price at which the back bet was placed. So if in the example above the price of "The Draw" had been higher than 14, that wouldn't have covered the loss, see below:

Lay amount = 2*(15 - 1) * 0.95 / (14.5 - 1) = 1.97

-2 + 1.97 - 0.1 = -0.13

Why the greenup trigger might not work?

If the chances of winning are way too different for the two teams, the fact that the underdog scores a goal might not increase the odds of "The Draw". This means there won't be an appropriate price for trading out, i.e. it might grow up, but not enough for a green up.

2. One of the teams scored, then the green-up trigger placed a bet.

In this case it does not matter whether the game ended in Draw or not, since the green-up trigger guarantees equal profit in either case.

In the example above you can see that the final profit is:

-2 + 9.5 - 7.08 - 0.12 = 0.3

The higher price "The Draw" will be greened up at, the more profit you'll get. There is a minimum back price that ought to be offered for "The Draw" in order to activate the greening up.

You can watch this price through a special user variable we inserted in the trigger file. It is called "expected_price". Use "View Variables" tool to monitor this price if you want to know when the green-up will be triggered. See an example below:

3. None of the teams scored, the game ended with a nil-nil Draw.

The back bet is going to win in this case, and the lay bet will lose. If by any chance the green-up trigger gets executed, this will mean net profit in both markets. If it doesn't, then the profit from the back bet will cover all the loss from the lay bet. See below.

P/L = 28 - 1.4 - 26.6 = 0

4. The teams scored an equal number of goals, so the game ended in Draw, but the green-up trigger did not place a bet.

This is the worst possible outcome, it means that you lose in both markets, and that makes this strategy not 100% guaranteed.

P/L = -29.43 - 2 = -31.43

This may happen if "The Draw"'s price did not reach the needed green-up level. Usually, if one of the teams scored a goal, the odds of "The Draw" increase substantially, so you are supposed to have enough time to trade it out, before the next goal is scored.

Still you should bear in mind that something may prevent the trigger from placing the second bet (market gets suspended, not enough funds in your account etc.).

commenti:

chippy @ Wed, 01 Jul 2009 09:06 GMT
Dangerous strategy imo. If the underdog scores first you could be in big trouble.
Feeder @ Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:28 GMT
Yes, that's exactly the point explained in the fourth outcome description.

I think it's worth trying when both teams have relatively equal chances for winning.
toro6386 @ Sat, 04 Jul 2009 08:54 GMT
I think that to use this strategy is more 'convenient layed the "Draw" odds is between is around @ 2.00 max @ 3.50.
chippy @ Sun, 05 Jul 2009 10:43 GMT
good point feeder, basically it's lay draw, insure 0-0. A more sound method must be lay under 2.5 back 0-0 at least this way the market will react in a none partisan way when underdog scores first.
paulbt38 @ Mon, 20 Jul 2009 19:52 GMT
chippy, by laying under 2.5 are you not left exposed to a match remaining 0-0 for the majority of the game with a goal scored say in the last 10 mins. Surely the odds for backing under 2.5 wouldn't increase sufficiently to green up?
Animation @ Tue, 28 Jul 2009 20:33 GMT
If your worried about the underdog scoring you could always have a little hedge on the 'Next Goal' ...
adrian @ Sat, 29 May 2010 09:27 GMT
Anyone use it with succes?
gustavo @ Wed, 22 Jun 2011 16:41 GMT
Does anyone change this to do the same at half time when a match is 0-0?
minge @ Mon, 08 Aug 2011 08:28 GMT
This revamped old system is flawed, dont buy it, it will NOT provide long term profit, its a disaster!!!
muffy @ Sun, 09 Oct 2011 20:06 GMT
I used the system about 6/7 years ago for about a month and i went for it big time,i was laying the draw for a £1,000(needed about £4,000 equity) and i was at best about £4,500 up,then i traded in a German match,some lowly team vs Bayern Munich and after about 60 mins the home team scored but the draw hardly moved and whilst i decided w to do Bayern scored and i reluctantly closed the bet at a loss of i think of over £1,000,subsequently Bayern won 3-1 !!! Had a couple more scares and stopped doing it when i finished £800 up overall,i did win about 85% of the time but you need to be real choosy over the matches you do...
jay @ Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00 GMT
it will work about 85% of the time as muffy said,but its all about match selection and if you are not on the ball with the teams and what the players attitude is like you will fail.i find that its all about attitude 99% of the time, look at Bayern 11 games one goal conceded and it was an own goal.
Apples999 @ Tue, 20 Dec 2011 01:52 GMT
Looks like most of us have the brains to leave this scheme alone.
even the code...(shows how to tie 2 markets together) is probably to complicated for any useful study.
Yep classic example of why/how programmers lose money on Betfair.
dwalker26 @ Mon, 02 Jan 2012 14:07 GMT
This system can work, just make sure that you have backed the 0-0 at a decently high price like 9.5 and lay the draw at something like 3 - 3.5. If a goal isn't scored don't worry because your profit from the 0-0 will cover the loss of the lay bet. If a goal is scored and it doesn't make a lot of difference to the draw odds then just back the draw for more than you were going to to make a smaller loss. It is about choosing the right games your right, but i know people who are making money from this.
Ben @ Sun, 01 Apr 2012 12:26 GMT
and if the teams draw 1-1 or 2-2. youre pretty much screwed?
Kavster @ Mon, 07 May 2012 19:05 GMT
An old system that every one has tried......let's face it, if it was that good we would all be doing it.
I use to use this about 5 years ago but have moved on to much more advanced and reliable money making trading systems.
Good luck to any one who tries it though.
Commenta questo articolo (nessun spam, nessun URL):

Il tuo nickname: